Written by: Joe Murray, WRA Director of Political & Governmental Affairs | October 02, 2024
Wisconsin could make history in 2024
In four of the last six presidential elections since 2000, the fight for the Badger State’s electoral votes has been decided by less than half a single point. Al Gore squeaked by George W. Bush by 0.2 points in 2000, John Kerry defeated George W. Bush by 0.4 points in 2004, Donald Trump edged Hillary Clinton by 0.8 points in 2016, and Joe Biden defeated Trump by 0.6 points in the 2020 presidential election. It doesn’t get much closer than these four elections.
According to Dr. Eric Ostermeier of the University of Minnesota Humphrey School of Public Affairs, “if Wisconsin’s presidential vote is decided by less than a percentage point in 2024, it will mark the first time during the modern two-party era (1828+) that a state has hosted such a nail-biter in three consecutive cycles.” Ostermeier said, “no state’s popular vote winner has been decided by less than a percentage point in three straight cycles during the two-party era,” which totals 196 years. The August Marquette Law School poll had Harris and Trump almost tied: 50% Harris, 49% Trump.
Eric Hovde vs. Tammy Baldwin
In Wisconsin, Republicans have not won back-to-back elections for U.S. Senate in 68 years. If Republican candidate Eric Hovde defeats Democrat Tammy Baldwin in November, it will be the first time since 1952 and 1956 that Republicans were successful in two consecutive statewide U.S. Senate elections. In 1952, Republican Sen. Joe McCarthy defeated Democrat Attorney General Thomas Fairchild; in 1956, Republican Sen. Alexander Wiley defeated Democrat State Sen. Henry Mair. Setting up the possibility for two consecutive Republican wins was Ron Johnson’s victory over Mandela Barnes in 2022.
Second chances in Wisconsin Senate election
In 2012, Hovde ran in a Republican primary election for U.S. Senate and was narrowly defeated by former Gov. Tommy Thompson, who was defeated by Baldwin in the general election. The 2024 Baldwin vs. Hovde contest is candidate Hovde’s second attempt for a seat in the U.S. Senate. According to Smart Politics, “Across the 40 U.S. Senate elections held in Wisconsin since 1914, losing major party candidates have mounted 21 subsequent campaigns for the office — all but one were unsuccessful.” In other words, losing candidates in Wisconsin have failed in 20 of 21 subsequent attempts for a U.S. Senate seat. The lone exception was Waupaca attorney and former Judicial Circuit Judge Joe McCarthy in 1946.
Wisconsin Representatives serving nonconsecutive terms
In April, former one-term Democrat U.S. Rep. Peter Barca entered the race for his old seat representing the 1st Congressional District in southeastern Wisconsin, which is currently held by Republican Rep. Bryan Steil. Barca served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1993-1995 and was defeated by former Republican Rep. Mark Neumann in the 1994 Republican wave election. It’s been 30 years since Barca served in Congress, and according to Smart Politics, “A Barca victory would not only be a mild upset, but it would also set the mark in Wisconsin for the largest gap in U.S. House service at 30 years. Of the nearly 189 men and women to serve as U.S. Representatives from Wisconsin since the late 1940s, a total of 21 have done so with non-consecutive terms — although none during the last 60 years.” The last Wisconsin Representative to serve in non-consecutive terms was Republican Glenn Davis in 1965.